Non-UCL Research Papers

Asteroid Mining and Capital Markets: A Long-Term Analysis of Economic Viability and Commodity Market Implications

Author

Abstract

Asteroid mining has increasingly attracted attention as a potential future source of critical minerals, particularly platinum-group metals (PGMs), due to advances in commercial spaceflight and declining launch costs. Despite growing interest, the long-term economic feasibility of asteroid mining remains uncertain because of high capital requirements, technological limitations, and regulatory ambiguity.

This paper evaluates the financial viability of asteroid mining using a discounted cash flow (DCF) framework under a moderate long-term scenario. The analysis incorporates assumptions regarding launch cost reductions, extraction efficiency improvements, commodity price trends, and investment risk over the period 2035–2100. In addition to modeling mission-level cash flows and net present value (NPV), the study examines broader implications for commodity markets and capital allocation.

The findings suggest that asteroid mining is unlikely to be economically viable within conventional capital market frameworks in the near or medium term. Although operational profitability may emerge in the latter half of the century, extended investment horizons and high discount rates significantly reduce present value. The analysis also highlights a potential structural paradox in which large-scale extraction could increase the supply of platinum-group metals and exert downward pressure on commodity prices, thereby reducing future profitability.

The paper concludes that asteroid mining may require alternative financing structures and long-horizon investment frameworks rather than traditional project finance models. More broadly, the study contributes to the emerging discussion surrounding space resource economics and the financial valuation of frontier technological industries.

Keywords: Asteroid Mining Capital Markets, Discounted Cash Flow, Space Economics, Platinum Group Metals, Space Finance, Commodity Markets, Resource Economics

How to Cite: Ansari, S. M. (2026) “Asteroid Mining and Capital Markets: A Long-Term Analysis of Economic Viability and Commodity Market Implications”, UCL Journal of Economics. 5(1). doi: https://doi.org/10.14324/111.444.2755-0877.2253

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