This is a response to the Brexit, Archaeology and Heritage workshop held in May 2017 at the Institute of Archaeology, UCL. On the 23rd of June 2016, the majority of the United Kingdom (UK) electorate voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU), despite the implications of such a decision being unclear. Now, a year on, and with Article 50 signed, it is still no clearer what the terms of ‘Brexit’ are, or how the UK will fare culturally, socially, and economically as a result. This discussion article presents aspects of the author’s research relating to the link between voting decisions and
On the 23rd of June 2016, the majority of the United Kingdom (UK) electorate voted in favour of leaving the European Union (EU), despite the implications of such a decision being unclear. Now, a year on, and with Article 50 signed, it is still no clearer what the terms of ‘Brexit’ are, or how the UK will fare culturally, socially, and economically as a result. The implications of Brexit on archaeology and heritage are some of those not often addressed, and therefore it was with great pleasure that I read Gardner and Harrison’s paper regarding such issues. Their paper covered topics including the practical implications of Brexit, ancestry, nationalism, and ‘post-truth’ politics. Having recently undertaken research assessing whether evolutionary theory can explain people’s voting decisions during the referendum, the results of this study will be examined in the context of Gardner and Harrison’s discussion; primarily addressing the role of new-nationalism and post-truth politics in Leave voters’ decisions.
I will first outline the research undertaken during my master’s degree, which tested whether people’s voting decisions could be explained by evolutionary theory – specifically
The fast-slow life-history continuum (adapted from
While life history theory was initially developed to explain the variation seen between species, it has also been generalised to explain differences in phenotypes within species (
This suggests that these females are ‘accelerating’ their life histories adaptively through shifting investment from growth to reproduction (
The observation that risky behaviour is indicative of a fast life history formed the basis of my hypothesis. Based on the prominent discourse in the media that leaving the EU was a risky decision (e.g.
To test this hypothesis, I collected relevant variables (such as life expectancy, population density, immigration rate, teen pregnancy, education levels) at local authority level, and analysed them alongside the percentage of people in the local authority that voted Leave. Initial analyses supported my hypothesis: for example, areas with a higher teen pregnancy rate, lower life expectancy, and lower level of education (fast life history traits) also had a higher proportion of Leave voters. However, a multiple regression model told a different story. Having reduced the number of variables included in the model from 11 to 6 using the Variance Inflation Factor and the Akaike Information Criterion, the final regression model included: female life expectancy, mean age, qualifications, wealth, teen pregnancy and population density, with an R2 of 0.81. While looking at the inclusion of these variables alone may imply positive evidence for life history theory being involved in people’s Brexit decisions, examining the internal relationships of the model implied otherwise. Without explaining the reasons fully (complete data analysis can be accessed through citations), it appeared population density was the most influential variable within the model. The conclusion drawn was that population density was integral due to the differences in cultural make up between high and low density populations. Population density and the percentage of residents born in the UK were strongly negatively correlated (r = –0.80), as was population density and the percentage of Leave voters (r = –0.56) demonstrating dense populations have a higher immigration rate and a lower Leave vote (Figure
Graphs showing the relationship between
Nigel Farage and his much criticised ‘Breaking Point’ anti-EU poster, which shows a long queue of migrants (BBC news).
I would first like to respond to Gardner and Harrison’s discussion of the ‘emergence of new nationalisms […] often finding expression in right-wing anti-globalisation’ attitudes. This is, of course, not the only reason people chose to leave the EU, nor is it likely the most common motive. However, it is a new concept which appears to have arisen in the past 10 years as a response to increased globalisation, and high levels of migration to western countries. This makes it a particularly pertinent and controversial topic for discussion. The real irony is that those who adhere to such rhetoric, are those who have felt the impacts of globalisation and increased immigration the least. As exemplified in my research, so-called ‘Brexiteers’ are more likely to live in environments with low levels of immigration, meaning these people are trying to prevent the continuation of a phenomenon they are hardly experiencing. It is not those who reside in environments with high levels of cultural diversity, such as London, that strive towards a ‘British-Britain’, but those who live in areas of the UK with a high white- British population. This lead to a paradox, in which areas with high levels of Leave voters will feel the social impact of Brexit in a more minimal way than culturally diverse areas that were more likely to vote Remain. For example, in my own borough of Camden where 58% of the residents are non-UK natives, 75% of people opted to vote Remain (
Furthermore, the nationalistic attitude held by many people in favour of leaving the EU may be pushing both ‘skilled’ and ‘non-skilled’ EU workers out of the UK. Not only do many migrants do the jobs that the British do not want to do (
While my research primarily related to nationalism, I feel compelled to comment on this era of emerging ‘post-truthers’. As highlighted by Gardner and Harrison, Michael Gove stated during the Leave campaign that ‘people in this country have had enough of experts’ (
While everyone had different reasons for voting in the way they did, ideology was certainly a prominent reason for many people. It is likely that we will not only suffer a loss of culture, but also a loss of experts and other skilled workers to nations more accepting of cultural differences. It is thought that young people now are the most tolerant generation thus far; yet as diversity decreases, it is likely that such tolerance will decrease alongside it.
Gardner and Harrison addressed the possible implications of Brexit on heritage and archaeology, however, much like Brexit itself – it is an unknown.
The author has no competing interests to declare.